I have come to finally realize that the chances of the FDA and the Centers of Disease Control actually sourcing the root cause of the salmonella outbreak are next to nill.

 

At first I was outraged. How could it be that this outbreak could continue and spread unabated for so long? Why can't we find the source of the problem in four months of searching? How could this be happening here in the U.S.?

The blind trust we all misplace in the U.S. food system and its safety has finally been completely breached, and who knows how long it will take to get consumer trust back once more.

On-the-Go-Foodservice has been covering the salmonella food poisoning case for more than six weeks, though the first case of salmonella was apparently reported in April and was not picked up by the media until June when the numbers of victims mounted.

At first, few news services were paying much attention. In the first news story we wrote on our web site June 4, a mere 70 people were made ill by a rare strain of salmonella called Saintpaul in Texas and New Mexico. Then another 30 or so cases were reported in a much broader region including Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Idaho, Illinois and Indiana.

Then, every few days the cases reported increased exponentially as did the geographic areas affected. In less than 3 weeks it became a national epidemic.

As of today, nearly 1,100 people have been made ill with salmonella Saintpaul. This marks the largest foodborne illness outbreak in U.S. history, and there are not any signs that the FDA and Centers of Disease Control and Prevention are any closer to identifying the cause and source.

At first tomatoes were blamed, and grocers and restaurants pulled them from shelves and menus, costing the tomato industry upwards of $100 million. That's not to say tomatoes were unjustly accused and are not the cause of the outbreak, because the fact remains that no one really knows for certain.

Government agencies have expanded the net to include other products in their search for the salmonella source, including jalapenos, cilantro and green onions, to name a few. While tomatoes are not completely off the hook, the intense focus has moved elsewhere.

It is clear the FDA does not have the appropriate resources to handle such an outbreak, never mind the ability to be proactive and inspect all the produce that comes into this country from all over world. A huge cash infusion will help ameliorate the immediate problem, but a deeper more comprehensive approach to food safety and inspection is sorely needed, especially on imported produce.

And in some ways, we as consumers are to blame because we want all fruits and produce available to us all year round, which drives the demand for imported produce from countries that often do not have the same farming, irrigation and safety standards that we practice in the U.S.

In the short term, buying local produce seems to be the answer for many consumers, and many more retailers and restaurants are promoting locally-grown fruit and vegetables in their stores.

In the long term, all those in the food retailing and foodservice industries have to galvanize their power to demand a stronger more impervious food safety strategy in Washington D.C.

Yes it will cost money - probably a lot of money -- but certainly not as much as is being lost and spent on this salmonella outbreak alone.

Congratulations to the retail foodservice industry that is still projected to grow by 5 percent, despite these difficult economic times, compared to the more strained restaurant segment.

This according to a revised forecast for the U.S. Foodservice Industry by Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based foodservice consulting and research firm. Technomic Inc. previously forecasted 3.6 percent growth for the overall foodservice industry, but it just rolled those numbers back to 2.2 percent due to little improvement in economic conditions that are hurting most restaurants.

The indication is that although some chain restaurant showing growth, the segments hit hardest are limited-service restaurants and full-service restaurants. In fact, full service restaurants are facing the biggest challenges as fewer people are going out to eat to conserve dollars.

 

But people have to eat, don't they? So where are they going? You got it. They are finding beautiful meal solutions and foodservice options at retail, including grocery store, convenience stores and other savvy retail foodservice operators. 

 

You will be happy to know that this segment of foodservice is holding strong and is expected to continue to grow, despite economic conditions. Technomic refers to retail foodservice as "retail hosts," but we won't hold that shortsighted moniker against them. Because it looks to us that the segment that is "hosting foodservice" (it sounds so impermanent, like retail foodservice is a visiting guests or something), has the highest forecasted growth projection of ALL the foodservice segments forecasted.

 

"Retail hosts, including supermarket foodservice and c-stores are one bright spot," said Ron Paul, president of Technomic. "We expect this group to enjoy solid 5 percent growth this year, further evidence of our observation that consumers are 'trading down' to more economical foodservice alternatives."

 

Now do not confusing trading down as a statement of quality. In Food for Thought's estimation, consumers are often trading up to retail foodservice from fast food chains and limited-service restaurants. Heck, there are more than a few full-service restaurants that can't hold a candle to retail foodservice establishments.

 

For example, Hy-Vee's breakfast lunch and dinner offering are a far cry from any meals you could get at McDonald's, Subway or say, TGI Friday's and Applebee's. And so is the food, for that matter, at grocers such as Whole Foods, Ukrop's, Wegmans, Harris Teeter, and convenience store chains including Wawa, Sheetz and Kwik Trip, to name a few.

 

Now these retailers may be offering good food at a fair price, but it should hardly be considered trading down. We'd call it "trading smart."

Everywhere you turn people are complaining about the rising cost of food staples, which have experienced double-digit price increases over the past year.The consumer is feeling the pinch in the grocery aisles and in restaurants, from the local pizza shop to the white tablecloth restaurant.

Without question, everyone in the food business is feeling the squeeze and has been relentlessly faced with the decision of raising prices or taking a short-term margin cut. Over the past year, some have opted to take the margin cut hoping that prices would level off, which they have not. Passing the rising costs on to the consumer is the only way now for many foodservice operators to survive.

The recession (which President Bush tells us we are not in), compounded by skyrocketing energy costs, is taking its toll everywhere. But the problem can't all be blamed on energy costs.

Most product categories are experiencing price hikes, but few are as high as wheat price spikes, which are primarily due to crop shortages. That's right, crop shortages. America has a wheat shortage, if you can believe it. Do you want to know why?

The incentives for farmers to grow corn for ethanol fuel are so compelling and lucrative, that farmers are abandoning wheat (and corn for human consumption) to grow ethanol corn.

So what are foodservice operators to do when wheat is such an important staple item for so many of their recipes -- sandwiches, hot dogs, burgers, pizza, muffins, cookies, cakes, pies, fried chicken, pasta, and the list goes on?

And the domino affect continues. The price of corn, (the type for human and animal consumption), is soaring as well, with prices up 50 percent since 2007. Corn prices have more than tripled compared to three years ago. And here is the trickle-down effect: Corn is the main ingredient in livestock and poultry feed, so prices of milk, chicken, meat and eggs also are higher. What foodservice operator doesn't use those vital items in their recipes? 

And no doubt, if foodservice operators are raising prices consumers are giving them an earful or indulging less often. Some operators are posting news stories about the wheat shortage and overall food price increase near their cash registers to help customers understand why their prices are higher.

Tell Food for Thought what you are doing to combat rising food costs, and how you are communicating with your customers to keep them on your side.

Our Thoughts on 2008 Predictions for the Foodservice Industry

KAON Consulting, a Raleigh, N.C. executive recruiting firm in the foodservice and restaurant industry, recently issued some interesting -- albeit some dated -- predictions for the foodservice sector in 2008.While the outlook was not specifically made with retail foodservice in mind, Food for Thought added its own commentary on the predictions.

We would love to hear your views about this year's outlook and actual year-to-date experience.

The outlook was put forth by managing partner Orrick Nepomuceno, who has more than 15 years experience in the food and hospitality industry as a pastry chef and an award-winning entrepreneur and consultant.

Here's what Nepomuceno has to say about 2008:

1. Sluggish sales growth will continue for 2008. The restaurant industry overall will see very conservative growth across all segments (casual, quick casual, quick service and fine dining). Although more Americans are spending a higher percentage of their disposable income allocated for food then ever before, most households will be less likely to eat out several times a week.  Most likely, they will eat at home and save instead. Bottom Line: Americans will have more disposable income in their wallets, but will probably consider saving instead of spending.

FFT (Food for Thought) Commentary: Wahoo. This leaves ample opportunity for retail foodservice operators who offer tantalizing take-home meal solutions to make eating at home more convenient and satisfying for consumers.

2. Increased energy and wholesale food costs will have a negative effect. With the price fluctuations in crude oil, lower and mid level-income households will feel a tighter pinch on spending disposable income on dining out, as they will inevitably be hit hard with increased gasoline prices. Bottom Line: Households will get a double hit with transportation and dining expenses.

FFT Commentary: Indeed increases in food costs and gas prices already are rearing their ugly heads in the retail foodservice sector. Many operators are doing their best not to pass on the full cost increases to consumers, hoping they are short-term, which, of course, is squeezing margins. Hang tight.

3. Technology will continue to advance even more rapidly than in previous years. Companies will look to the Internet for connecting with customers in more ways than before. Online ordering will become more robust as mobile handheld devices, such as the iPhone, have web browsing capabilities similar to their desktop versions. Also, a "Facebook" and "MySpace" type of social networking will become more prevalent with company sites where consumers can create online profiles. Bottom Line: The foodservice and restaurant industry has a long way to go before it catches up with other industries in terms of technology, but there will be noticeable growth.

FFT Commentary: Most retail foodservice operators lag even farther behind in technology than the restaurant industry . . . but there is ample opportunity to improve in this area and better connect with customers and make their lives easier.

4. Recruitment and retention will be of a lesser concern. The industry has always been labor-intensive with recruitment and retention typically the biggest concern among most hiring managers. But for 2008, according to NRA predictions, the industry will see a relatively small increase (0.9 percent) in the employment rate. Coupled with a slowing economy, job creation will be less than in 2007. Bottom Line: Many operators' concerns will be moving towards cost reduction in order to stay competitive.

FFT Commentary: Recruitment and retention in retail foodservice is always top of mind and one of the industry's biggest challenges. We do not agree with the gobblygook above.

5. The industry will be bullish on coffee bars. One segment, although relatively small, the Snack & Non-Alcoholic Beverage Bars (Coffee and Dessert bars), will see higher than normal growth compared to other segments. Bottom Line: Companies will look to find niche segments where there is little or no saturation.

FFT Commentary: This is not exactly a 2008 phenomenon. Coffee and dessert bars continue to be a big opportunity for operators with the right products, flair and presentation.

6. Global cuisine will be on the rise. At a recent conference of Executive Chefs across America, most commented on smaller sized portions and the introduction of ingredients from different parts of the world. Popular ethnic fare from Latin America, the Mediterranean, Middle East and Southeast Asia are on the rise. These chefs also commented on utilizing more local produce, sustainable seafood and grass fed beef and poultry. Bottom Line: American diners are becoming more savvy and demanding more exotic flavors when they go out.

FFT Commentary: We're seeing more exotic flavors and concoctions everywhere we look, and it is exciting. Everyone is paying attention to this trend from convenience stores and club stores to grocery stores and meal-prep locations. Keep it coming. You don't have to be a five star restaurant to deliver bold and exotic flavors.

7. Fat is not in. Americans are demanding healthier foods. Look for menu offerings at current concepts to reflect this trend. With obesity in America on the verge of becoming an epidemic and local municipalities looking to stiff-arm the industry into removing trans-fats and other harmful foods, look for the restaurant industry to try and get ahead of the curve with the food it serves. Bottom Line: Expect local municipalities to continue to embark campaigns to reduce the consumption of trans-fats.

FFT Commentary: Not much to add to this most dubious "prediction." Fat -- never mind trans fat -- has been out for some time. Although go into any fast-food joint or convenience store and you realize there is still a hefty portion of the population that thrives on fat-laden foods.

Welcome everyone to On-the-Go Foodservice's blog -- Food for Thought. It is our intention to be your eyes and ears as we travel around the country and see really interesting food concepts, ideas and best practices (or bad practices to be avoided) that we can share with you. The best part of a blog is that it provides two-way communication with our on-the-go foodservice community. This blog will be even more interesting and useful when industry retailers and suppliers comment on our entries, giving us their own Food for Thought. So we hope you  enjoy our commentary and the opportunity to participate.

We thought we would start this blog by telling you about some interesting things we saw at the International Restaurant & Foodservice Show that was in New York City last week. There are four things we saw that impressed us and have stayed with us. The first is a frozen dessert item called Yolato, which is a soft-serve frozen yogurt gelato that actually tastes like yogurt, for all you yogurt lovers out there. We don't know who decided years back that frozen yogurt had to taste like ice cream, but we are pleased to tell you that there is resurgence in the taste of yogurt in frozen yogurt. In part we can thank Pinkberry, the high-end frozen yogurt parlors cropping up in New York and California that have somehow managed to make frozen yogurt chic again. But enough about Pinkberry and more about Yolato. The products has a wonderful tangy and fresh taste, is fat free and doesn't taste it, an the soft-serve dispensing machine has a relatively small footprint and tempting merchandising graphics. The company is also rolling out packaged frozen yogurt ice cream bars for retail sale in supermarkets in New York and expects to expand distribution in the near future.

The second cool thing we saw at the show is an innovative technology tool that helps chefs control costs and maximize profits. The tool is called ChefTec made by Culinary Software Services Inc. It is an integrated program with recipe and menu costing, inventory control, purchasing and ordering, and nutritional analysis capabilities. The company representatives told us it is designed to meet the needs of foodservice operators of any size. To give you an example of how this tool could be used, we selected a new recipe and the system churned out the costs based on the return we were seeking, and then recommended the lowest cost supplier for each ingredient in the recipe.Very cool.

The third impression we want to share with you is the variety and number of beautiful artisan breads at the show that just made our mouths water aisle after aisle. The one that really captured our attention, however, is Tribeca Oven, which has national distribution of its breads that can be delivered fresh baked, par-baked and thaw and serve. The variety of breads was incredible, from herbed focaccia and sourdough and challah to French dinner rolls and loaves, and fruit and nut assortments.At first we thought they were only a local New York City bakery with only local distribution. We were pleasantly surprised to find out we were in error.

Lastly, there were a variety of boil-in-bag gourmet soups available that are so easy to heat and serve up. Campbell's StockPot has an impressive variety of chilies, stews, soups (concentrates and ready-to-use), as well as dressings, sauces, gravies and marinades. Some tasty soup varieties include Southern Style Chicken with Dumplings, Jambalaya with Chicken, Sausage & Ham, and Roadhouse Chili with Beans. Another company called Blount Fine Foods offers fresh and frozen soups as well as gluten-free, dairy-free, vegan and low-fat selections. Some of the tempting varieties include Butternut Squash and Apple Soup, Extreme Lobster Bisque and Tomato Basil Bisque.

Thanks for logging onto our blog. We look forward to your comments.